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Find the mispriced markets

The Alpha Scanner runs every 30 minutes, comparing the AI’s probability estimate against the market price for every active market. When it finds a meaningful divergence, it calculates the expected value, Kelly fraction, and packages the full reasoning chain into an actionable edge card.

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How it works

1

AI analyzes every market

The multi-agent system produces a probability estimate for each active market (tiered by volume/importance).
2

Edge calculated

For each market: edge = AI probability - market probability. A 72% AI estimate vs 45% market price = 27% edge.
3

EV and Kelly computed

Expected value per $1 bet and Kelly criterion optimal position size are calculated from the edge and odds.
4

Edges ranked and classified

Edges are ranked by conviction, edge size, and EV. Classified as high conviction, moderate, or speculative.

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Edge card anatomy

Each edge card shows:
ComponentDescription
Edge badge”27% EDGE” — color-coded by conviction level
Market questionThe market being analyzed
The numbers”AI says 72%” vs “Market says 45%” — visual comparison
EV display”+$0.60 EV per $1” with Kelly optimal sizing
Reasoning summary2-3 sentence thesis (expandable to full reasoning chain)
Key factorsBullet points of supporting evidence
Agent agreement”4/4 agents agree” with confidence bar
Risk factorsCollapsed by default — the bear case
Trade button”Buy YES @ 45¢” with pre-filled amount

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Classification

LevelCriteriaMeaning
High convictionEdge ≥ 25%, agreement ≥ 3/4, confidence ≥ 75Strongest setups — agents agree, evidence is clear
ModerateEdge ≥ 15%, agreement ≥ 2/4, confidence ≥ 50Decent opportunity with some uncertainty
SpeculativeBelow moderate thresholdsInteresting but uncertain — smaller position sizes

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The math

EV = (AI probability × payout) - (1 - AI probability × cost)
Example: AI says 72%, market price 45¢
  • Cost per share: $0.45
  • Payout if right: $1.00
  • EV = (0.72 × $1.00) - (0.28 × $0.45) = $0.72 - $0.126 = +$0.594 per share

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Filtering edges

FilterOptions
Sort byConfidence, Edge %, EV, Kelly fraction
Edge typeHigh conviction, Moderate, Speculative
CategoryPolitics, Crypto, Sports, Finance, etc.
Min confidenceSlider (0-100)
Min edgeSlider (0-50%)
Most profitable setup: High conviction edges in high-volume markets. The liquidity ensures clean execution, and agent agreement means the evidence is strong. Sort by EV, filter to 75+ confidence.
Edge ≠ guaranteed profit. The AI can systematically misjudge novel situations. Always read the reasoning chain and risk factors before sizing up. The edge card shows you everything you need to form your own view.