When the AI disagrees with the market
A signal fires when Supermission’s AI system calculates a probability that meaningfully diverges from the current market price. That divergence is your potential edge. Signals aren’t tips. They’re reasoned analyses with sources, confidence scores, and full transparency into how the AI reached its conclusion.Three signal types
Sentiment
AI’s independent probability estimate based on news, social data, and fundamentals. Fires when AI confidence diverges from market price.
Momentum
Price action confirms what sentiment already predicted. The market is moving toward the AI’s estimate. Trend-following signal.
Spot Price
Crypto-specific. Triggers when a token crosses a threshold relevant to a prediction market (e.g., BTC above
$100k triggers related market signals).How signals are generated
This isn’t a single model guessing. It’s a 4-agent system:Independent analysis
Four AI agents — Bull, Bear, Contrarian, and Quant — independently analyze the market. Each has different biases and data priorities. They don’t see each other’s work.
Evidence gathering
Each agent pulls from news feeds, social sentiment, on-chain data, and historical patterns. Every claim is sourced.
Debate synthesis
A judge agent reviews all four analyses, weighs the arguments, and produces a final probability estimate with confidence score.
Confidence scores
Every signal carries a confidence score from 0 to 100:| Range | Meaning |
|---|---|
| 80-100 | Strong conviction. Agents largely agree. Evidence is clear. |
| 60-79 | Moderate conviction. Some disagreement between agents. |
| 40-59 | Low conviction. Significant agent disagreement. Proceed with caution. |
Filtering signals
The signal feed can be filtered by:- Category — Politics, Crypto, Sports, Finance, etc.
- Confidence — Minimum threshold slider
- Volume — Filter out thin markets where execution is harder