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Reading the numbers

Every number on a market card is telling you something. Once you learn to read them, you see the market differently. This takes 2 minutes.

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Price = probability

The single most important thing to internalize: A YES price of $0.65 means the market believes there’s a 65% chance the event happens. That’s not a metaphor. The price literally is the probability estimate, derived from every dollar that’s been put on both sides. It’s a real-money consensus — people backing their beliefs with capital.

YES + NO = ~$1.00

If YES is 0.72,NOisapproximately0.72, NO is approximately 0.28. Always. If you ever see them not summing to ~$1, that’s a spread or rounding artifact.

Price movement = belief shift

YES goes from 0.40to0.40 to 0.55? The market just shifted from “probably not” to “coin flip, leaning yes.” Watch for what caused the move.

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The numbers that matter

Cumulative USDC that’s been traded in this market across all time. High volume = lots of interest and usually better price discovery. A 10Mvolumemarkethasbeenstress−testedbythousandsoftraders.A10M volume market has been stress-tested by thousands of traders. A 50K market might still be finding its price.
How much you can buy or sell without moving the price. High liquidity means your $500 order fills at roughly the displayed price. Low liquidity means your order eats through the book and you get a worse average price (slippage).Rule of thumb: if your order is more than 5-10% of visible liquidity, use a limit order.
If the best buy for YES is 0.64andthebestsellis0.64 and the best sell is 0.66, the spread is $0.02 (2 cents). Tight spreads = healthy, liquid market. Wide spreads = be careful, you’re paying a premium to enter and exit.
How much the price moved in the last 24 hours. A +5% move on a market that’s been flat for weeks might signal new information entering the market. But don’t chase momentum blindly — the move might already be priced in.

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Reading signals from prices

YES at 0.92.Themarketisveryconfidentthishappens.BuyingYESheremeansyou′repaying0.92. The market is very confident this happens. Buying YES here means you're paying 0.92 to potentially make 0.08.That′saterriblerisk/reward∗∗unless∗∗you′renearlycertain.Conversely,ifyouthinkthemarketiswrong,buyingNOat0.08. That's a terrible risk/reward **unless** you're nearly certain. Conversely, if you think the market is wrong, buying NO at 0.08 gives you 12x if it doesn’t happen.
Supermission’s AI signals compare the market price against the AI’s independent probability estimate. When those diverge — say, market at 0.40andAIat0.40 and AI at 0.65 — that’s the signal. The bigger the gap, the stronger the conviction.