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Reading the numbers

Reading market prices on Supermission
Every number on a market card is telling you something. Once you learn to read them, you see the market differently. This takes 2 minutes.

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Price = probability

The single most important thing to internalize: A YES price of $0.65 means the market believes there’s a 65% chance the event happens. That’s not a metaphor. The price literally is the probability estimate, derived from every dollar that’s been put on both sides. It’s a real-money consensus — people backing their beliefs with capital.

YES + NO = ~`$1.00`

If YES is $0.72, NO is approximately $0.28. Always. If you ever see them not summing to ~$1, that’s a spread or rounding artifact.

Price movement = belief shift

YES goes from $0.40 to $0.55? The market just shifted from “probably not” to “coin flip, leaning yes.” Watch for what caused the move.

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The numbers that matter

Cumulative USDC that’s been traded in this market across all time. High volume = lots of interest and usually better price discovery. A $10M volume market has been stress-tested by thousands of traders. A $50K market might still be finding its price.
How much you can buy or sell without moving the price. High liquidity means your $500 order fills at roughly the displayed price. Low liquidity means your order eats through the book and you get a worse average price (slippage).Rule of thumb: if your order is more than 5-10% of visible liquidity, use a limit order.
If the best buy for YES is $0.64 and the best sell is $0.66, the spread is $0.02 (2 cents). Tight spreads = healthy, liquid market. Wide spreads = be careful, you’re paying a premium to enter and exit.
How much the price moved in the last 24 hours. A +5% move on a market that’s been flat for weeks might signal new information entering the market. But don’t chase momentum blindly — the move might already be priced in.

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Reading signals from prices

YES at $0.92. The market is very confident this happens. Buying YES here means you’re paying $0.92 to potentially make $0.08. That’s a terrible risk/reward unless you’re nearly certain. Conversely, if you think the market is wrong, buying NO at $0.08 gives you 12x if it doesn’t happen.
Supermission’s AI signals compare the market price against the AI’s independent probability estimate. When those diverge — say, market at $0.40 and AI at $0.65 — that’s the signal. The bigger the gap, the stronger the conviction.